Starting with Texas, Donald Trump has pushed Republican state legislators to redraw US House district lines for the 2026 elections to ensure that Republicans continue to control the House, even if that’s against the will of voters. In a surprising development, however, a three-judge federal court recently blocked the Trump-inspired redistricting plan. What happened, why, and what does this mean for the future?
What happened in the Texas case?
Several civil rights groups filed suit against the Texas gerrymandering plan, claiming it is racially discriminatory. A nine-day trial was held in front of a three-judge federal court composed of judges nominated by President Trump in his first term, President Obama, and President Reagan.
Trump Judge Jeffrey Brown wrote a 160 page opinion, joined in full by Obama Judge David Guaderrama, to which Reagan Judge Jerry Smith dissented. The 2-1 ruling issued a preliminary injunction that stopped Texas from going forward with the 2025 redistricting plan.
Brown explained that under Supreme Court precedent, federal courts cannot stop legislatures from engaging in political gerrymandering. But the evidence showed that Texas Republicans were ultimately convinced to act based on urging by Trump and a letter by Trump’s head of civil rights at DOJ, Harmeet Dhillon, explicitly premised on changing the racial makeup of target districts. Such racial gerrymandering, according to Judges Brown and Guaderrama, was unconstitutional. The evidence at the hearing and the full record, Brown wrote, made clear that the civil rights groups are “likely to prove at trial” that “Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map,” and that their members will suffer “irreparable harm” to their “right to vote free from racial discrimination” without an injunction.
What happens now and why is the decision important?
Texas has already appealed the decision to the Supreme Court. Since candidates must declare for the Texas election by December 8, some action is expected by then, either to halt the injunction and let the election process go forward using the gerrymandered districts or to require the state to use the district lines drawn in 2021.
Depending on what the Court does, Trump’s decision to push redistricting by Texas in 2025 may well backfire. If the court ruling stands, Republicans will not gain the five seats they expected from their gerrymander. In addition, some Democratic states, notably California, have decided to redistrict before next-year’s midterms in response to that action. The net result could thus very well be that Republicans will lose, not gain, likely Congressional seats before next November. In addition, the Texas decision is yet another example of how lower federal courts, even sometimes including Trump and other Republican judges, have stood up against Trump and for the rule of law.